Dean on CNBC: Europe to return to growth in 2014 – Whatever it takes

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Europe to return to growth in 2014 – Whatever it takes
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The ECB renewed commitment to maintain an accommodative monetary policy will be among the factors that will help Europe to continue the path to recovery that should result in positive GDP growth this year. While Mario Draghi was cautious in calling the end of the crisis his firmer language echoes the famous 2012 speech that drove the return of investors confidence in Europe.  Valuations in Europe remain attractive and there are several investment opportunities both in the broad indices and specific sectors like financials and consumer discretionary. 
 
This does not mean that the challenges are over:
– Unemployment remains at very high levels of 12.1% (particularly in the periphery)
What is particularly concerning is the level of youth unemployment that reached  very high levels (36.8% in Portugal, 41.6% in Italy, 57.7% in Spain).
– The monetary transmission system of passing the high liquidity provided to banks is not functioning properly.
Small and mid size companies are still seeing limited financing opportunities and the same is true for consumers. 
 
With the industrial production improvement in Germany (Nov data) and the economic sentiment at a 29 month high the environment is still positive for investors. In the specific I will continue to favour companies with global exposure including consumer discretionary.
 
European banks 
==============
 
With the renewed support of the ECB there are still opportunities in the European banking sector particularly in the periphery (with the exclusion of few banks that still have not adapted to the new environment and raised sufficient capital). Overall the creation the banking union later this year will further strengthen the whole sector and reduce the sense of insecurity that has prevented some investors to enter the market. 
The banking union will increase uniformity across Europe and ensure an even higher degree of regulatory oversight and transparency.
 
In Short
========
 
– ECB renewed commitment to maintain an accommodative monetary policy will be positive for European Markets in 2014.
– The European steady path to recovery should translate in positive GDP growth in 2014. 
– Europe still faces several challenges like high unemployment that will take time to normalise. 
– European Banks in the periphery present interesting valuations and a good opportunity for investors. 

Master of Leading Innovation and Change Graduations in York Minster, 2013

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Graduation 2013 - photo courtesy of York St John University

Graduation 2013 – photo courtesy of York St John University

Fervent readers of this blog will have noticed the relatively long silence from yours truly – no good excuses really, but here I am, back with news from York, where this year’s graduation saw the second batch of the Master of Leading Innovation and Change graduating in the absolutely impressive setting of the York Minster. More than 40 graduates from Robert Kennedy College have attended this year’s graduation, from all over the world, and have been cheered on by hundreds in attendance as their dreams to have a Master’s degree have come true.

Seeing all of you walk on that platform and shaking hands with the Vice Chancellor of York St John University, Professor David Fleming, I was getting goose bumps: such an accomplishment for you, but equally for us, and boy are we proud of you. Let me say that again. We are immensely proud of all of you, and to be honest I am already rubbing my hands in anticipation for next year’s graduation!

Here are some more photos from the graduation ceremony, and I am hoping to be able to post a short clip soon too.

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Congratulations to you all, and we hope to hear of even greater things from you in the future. Hats-off to our new Master of Leading Innovation and Change graduates !

Graduation 2013, hats off! - photo courtesy of York St John University

Graduation 2013, hats off! – photo courtesy of York St John University

 

Dean on CNBC: Banks face legal charges from the past

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Banks face legal charges from the past

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Rabobank is just the last bank to have reached a record settlement of $1.07 billion for
alleged misconduct in the libor and other interest rates manipulation scandal.

Barclays is also facing a $700m charge after losing the appeal with hedge fund diamond capital.

Legal charges have also impacted Q3 results of UBS, which now faces
higher provision requirements from the FINMA, and Deutsche Bank that had to increase
litigation reserves of 1.2 billion to 4.1 billion Euro. The situation of
Deutsche Bank is different as it did not yet reach a settlement with the regulators.

This uncertainty over possible further legal charges makes it difficult for
investors to assess the real litigation risk faced by some of these banks.

Banks are therefore going to face higher legal charges and might be required by
regulators, like in the case of UBS, to hold more capital.

Investors can benefit from this volatility in the sector by paying attention to
some unique situations in the industry like:

– Swiss banks maintain a competitive advantage as the regulator moved very quickly
after the crisis to increase capital requirements and do not face the same issue
of other European banks where bad loans have reached $1.7 Trillion ;

– Some Europe banks have no pending legal charges and limited exposure to bad loans
and are a good opportunity for investors;

Given that non performing loans in Europe have double in the last 4 years the environment
will remain challenging. Swiss banks will improve and maintain their strong position in
some banking areas e.g. wealth management.

European banks & bad loans
==========================

The increase of European banks bad loans to $1.7 billion raises the question on how
banks will prepare for the next year stress test but, and perhaps more importantly,
how this might impact access to credit in many european economies that need financing to
fuel growth.

In Short
========

– Litigation risks represent a big challenge for banks and investors that need to
assess how this will impact their future results;
– Swiss banks maintain their competitive advantage due to the strong capital base and the already
reformed Swiss regulatory environment;
– European banks operate in a more challenging environment with higher bad loans and the need to reinforce their capital positions well ahead of the 2014 stress tests.

Dr. David Costa – Dean’s Interview on CNBC: Overlook of banking and Italy

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Italy to submit budget to the European Commission
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Last Wednesday the Italian Government has approved a number of measures that will allow Italy to keep
the budget deficit inside the 3%. These measure worth 1.6 billion are comprised of 1.1 billion 
in spending cuts by government and local authorities and 500 million in the sales of public buildings.
The target of the Government is a 2.9% budget deficit vs. a 3% of 2012.
 
The Government objective remains to cut spending and taxes at the same time with emphasis on cutting
payroll taxes to increase competitiveness and improve salaries. 
 
In my view Italy benefits from several competitive advantages (notably the made in Italy) but has to find
a way to maintain and enhance competitiveness particularly for small and medium size companies where 
access to credit can improve. 

September 2013 MALIC Residency in York

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Almost two weeks have passed, but memories are still fresh!

September 9th, 2013 – a day like any other really, except I got to meet for the first time “in the flesh” 49 extraordinary people, all on the same day, and all in a single room! Granted, the room was not too big, but the energy and excitement as we got to know each other, shaking hands or finally pulling those virtual hugs into the real universe, was unbelievable.

These forty-nine “students”, seasoned managers, board-room veterans, serial or aspiring entrepreneurs, from all walks of life, were representing all five continents (sorry Antarctica, we’re still waiting for your representative!), and a staggering thirty (30!) countries. It is difficult to describe in words, and even more difficult to imagine, the richness of the interaction and the dynamics of such a special group. A biased population, for sure, driven by the desire to grow better.

MALIC Sep 2013 York from Dr.David Costa on Vimeo.

As the week progressed and we delved deeper into matters pertaining to research ethics, and quality of research, we also took great care to nourish and develop social relations, in places traditionally suitable for debate, such as pubs, restaurants and cafés, and to be honest, for me this is almost without exception the most interesting part of such a residency – discovering the people. As big a supporter of online education as I am (being actively involved in it!), the added value of face-to-face interaction, for even the briefest of times, to me is invaluable. And Tim agrees!

Students for students: Tim's advice for the residency from Dr.David Costa on Vimeo.

For more advice from current and past students, visit:

https://blog.college.ch/tag/students4students/

It would not be fair to leave out the exceptional team from our partner York St John University, who have done an amazing job of catering to all our needs, academic or logistic, and have done so with style. George and Irene, Sarah, Leanne and Natalie, thank you!

The Dean on CNBC: German Elections: the impact for Europe and European Investors

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German Elections: the impact for Europe and European Investors
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The upcoming German elections should not present any drastic change for other European
countries or European investors.
 
We do not know what the Government coalition will be and if some minor parties, like the anti-euro party will
meet the 5% necessary to hold a seat in the parliament, but some points are already well defined:
 
– In Germany there is a strong consensus against any form of debt mutualisation so we are unlikely to see
any form of Eurobond. That might only happen when and if Europe will have a centralised supervision that will
ensure no overspending. Germany is unlikely to accept and support a fiscal union.
 
– The banking union process will progress at a slow pace and Germany sees the union more as a long term
institutional structural change and not as a tool to fight the crisis in the short term. 
 
– Both the German public and the majority of politicians believe on the principle of fiscal austerity and low inflation
which doesn’t stimulate consumers spending.  This is unlikely to change despite the wishes of both the U.S. and other
European countries to stimulate growth. 
 
 
German Elections for European Markets
=====================================
 
Investment flows in Europe are back at pre-crisis level. What markets really want now is continuity.For this 
reason the re-election of Angela Merkel will be positive for the markets.
In a post-election scenario the new German governments could have more flexibility if needed as there will be
less anxiety about the immediate public reaction.
 
What I do think it that it is highly unlikely to see a new crisis as the one experience in 2010-2012 which was,
primarily, a crisis of confidence. 
 
Wide Divide
===========
 
As highlighted in a recent EY study the divide between northern and southern European economies is widening. For instance
in 2014 unemployment is likely to remain lower than 5.4% in Germany but to peak to 27% and 29% in Spain and Greece.
While as a whole Europe will maintain a steady path to recovery this divide creates opportunities for investors that 
select these European countries, industries and sectors that are more likely to recover in the short term. 
In Short
========
 
– German elections is likely to result in policy continuity with the same position on Eurobonds, Banking Union and a recovery
based on fiscal austerity and low inflation;
– European markets are likely to benefit from this continuity and another crisis is unlikely;
– Wide divide to remain with substantial gaps in unemployment and growth between northern and southern european economies. 

The End of Swiss Banking Secrecy ?

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The End of Swiss Banking Secrecy ?

=======================

The Swiss government proposed bill to allow banks to share clients data with the U.S. received a setback with the parliamentary committee rejection of the draft.
Today’s vote by the upper house will probably decide the future of Swiss banking secrecy. Both bankers and Cantonal financial directors are supporting the agreement as a rejection could lead to criminal indictments for some Swiss banks with obviously a very bad impact to business.

With very limited information available it is however clear that one of the historical competitive advantages of Swiss banks is going to be impacted. The main issue is if the acceptance of some unilateral conditions will set an important precedence that might lead to the end of Swiss banking secrecy.

In my view several Swiss major banks have already adapted their business model by leveraging their competitiveness on security and stability and by refocusing on high growth area like Asia but with a very fierce competition the loss of secrecy might have a negative impact to business.

A recent drop on several Swiss banks might still be a buying opportunity, especially for these banks that have already successfully changed their business model.

Dean’s List: Pius Ughakpoteni

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Pius Ughakpoteni is both an RKC graduate and a student. He was so happy with his studies in the MALIC programme that he enrolled in the Leadership and Sustainability MBA where he is now. Looking forward, he has been accepted to Middlesex University in London where he will obtain his doctorate. All of his studies come together in his work for the Niger Delta Development Commission where he has worked for several years.

Pius 2Kelly Boler: Tell us about yourself. Background: work, life, family.

Pius Ughakpoteni: I obtained a B.Sc. (Management) from the University of Calabar, Nigeria, in 1991. Thereafter, I went into journalism and had an extremely satisfying career. A providential detour took me to the public service and culminated in a blossoming public relations career.

In 2011 I took a momentous decision to go back to school for a Master’s degree in Leading Innovation and Change, MALIC, without leaving work. I started the MALIC studies at Robert Kennedy College on September 1, 2011.

It was a highly challenging adventure, as I studied alongside carrying out my duties as a member of the management cadre in the Niger Delta Development Commission and running a nuclear family of almost 10, but coming to RKC ignited my longstanding desire to reach the pinnacle of education. Hence, since October 2012, I have been doing an MBA in Leadership and Sustainability, also at RKC, which coursework I should complete by the end of 2013. Moreover, with the MALIC, I have been admitted for a Doctorate degree at Middlesex University, London.

KB: You are an Assistant Director in the Niger Delta Development Commission. What do you do there?
PU: The Niger Delta Development Commission is an agency of the Federal Government of Nigeria created to bring about change in the well-endowed but highly beleaguered Niger Delta region, and facilitate its speedy, even and sustainable development. As Assistant Director in the Corporate Affairs Department, I work with the Head, Corporate Affairs, and other colleagues to position NDDC in the minds of its different publics as an organisation that delivers projects and programmes which meet their needs in a cost-effective, timely and transparent manner.

KB: Has your study at RKC helped in your work?
PU: Absolutely! My study at RKC has deepened my insight into the different antecedents of innovation and successful change that need to be strengthened in my work and working environment. It has boosted my concern for people. It has enabled me to respect others’ perspectives, even seek contrary or novel views and value the contributions people can make no matter what their status in the organisation.

KB: What was the best part of your experience doing the online degree?
PU: Beyond the extremely fruitful online and extra-curricular discussions with fellow students, I cherished the very helpful feedback I received from RKC faculty on my various mid-term and final assignments. In addition, memories of the face-to-face meetings with some fellow students as well as RKC and York St John University faculty at the Residency will linger for long.Pius and his family

KB: Describe your favorite local food.
PU: It is starch and banga soup. Starch is a solid, favorite food of mine that is prepared by mixing a solution of cassava starch with a little palm oil and stirring it while over heat until it changes from fluid to solid state. Thereafter it is eaten by skillfully cutting it in lumps which are dipped, one after another, into banga soup. For me, the soup has to be densely populated with pieces of dry fish and cow head.

KB: Are you reading anything right now?
PU: O yes, of course. For a few weeks now I have been reading Dr. David Costa’s The Portable Banker. Today, I also started re-reading Research Methods for Business Students by Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill.

KB: Do have any favorite books about innovation that have influenced you?
PU: Well, I have found Managing Innovation and Change: A critical Guide for Organizations by King and Anderson very useful. It is succinct but deep and loaded.

KB: Who are your heroes in the working world?
PU: I admire people who, by sheer determination, dint of hard work, and faith in God, surmount obstacles without being discouraged and work their ways to the top.

KB: What is your motto?
PU: With God in you and you in Him all things are possible, provided you work hard and smart.Pius and wife

Dean’s List: Eyal Policar, Leader of Innovation and Change

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Eyal picking lilies

Eyal Policar is a graduate of the Master in Leading Innovation and Change (MALIC) program at Robert Kennedy College. He lives in moshav Zofar in a desert in southern Israel half-way between the Red Sea and the Dead Sea. Together, he and his wife Leaora manage a farm where they raise dates, peppers, and flowers. As this profile was being written, Eyal wrote to add that he had just received the news that he had been awarded a merit by the board of examiners at York St. John University. “For me this is an outstanding achievement,” he writes.

KB: At first glance, a degree in Innovation and Change might seem like a peculiar choice for a farmer. What drew you to it?
EP: As a 30-year, seasoned innovative farmer I decided to go back and get the grey cells brain trained. I thought of doing a normal MBA until I came across a few articles that argued that there are too many “number experts” out there but the person angle is overlooked. I came across MALIC and immediately fell in love with this angle of the Business school.

Besides being a farmer I teach in AICAT (Arava International Centre for Agricultural Training). We bring 700 agricultural students from the Asian countries over for a 10-month, hands-on experience. I teach Agro-economics and Agro-entrepreneurship and from day one of my studies [in MALIC] I began using my newly gained knowledge, such as Schein’s Cultural Understandings and Kotter’s Eight Stages of Leading Change.

KB: What has been the best part of your experience doing this online degree?

EP: Interaction with other students. Same books, same articles, same questions but such diverse answers and understandings from fellow students; culture galore on the RKC forums. Those who didn’t participate simply didn’t use the resources to the fullest, a shame.

KB: Do you have a favorite local food?
EP: My wife’s cooking. Here we eat “warm” at lunch and light meals in the evening. It’s unbelievable how many different ways there are to cook with peppers, tomatoes, aubergine, basil, tarragon, mint, and dates which we have plenty during the season.

KB: Tell us about the seminar that you have been asked to present by the Rothschild foundation (the Rothschild Ambassadors program, which looks for young people interested in becoming the future business and social leaders of Israel).
EP: One of the most intriguing aspects of leadership is the idea that different situations demand different leadership capabilities. I constructed a seminar picking up on this theme which the Rothschild foundation has asked me to present it to the Rothschild Ambassadors. This is a great honor.

KB:  Any advice to MALIC students?

EP:  These studies are all about change. Are you a change agent? Can you change? As you read academically and watch the videos, ask yourself: can this idea be part of my life pragmatically. Give yourself examples in your life of things that need to change and put your money where your mouth is.

For instance, the other day my son invited me to a small restaurant in Tel-Aviv. I said to him, today I will order the least appetizing meal on the menu.

“Why?” he asked me.

“Because i am hungry and it takes courage to order the least appetizing meal.”

So I ordered stuffed beets. The stuffing was burghul [a coarse wheat]. Imagine no meat, potatoes or rice. It was one of the best meals I have had in a long time.

KB: You play in a band called The Desert Coolers. Tell us more!

Eyal desert coolers

 

EP: I believe in soul economics, which means there are things you do for your livelihood and things you do for your soul. In my case its music. In my band the Desert Coolers we play oldies.

(Editor’s note: Eyal Policar is interested in keeping in touch with other MALIC alumni to create a kind of active Alumni center. The idea would be to have an outlet for keeping up with and exchanging academic and practical ideas, business opportunities, and a continuation of studies. Anyone interested can contact him through the OnlineCampus or alternatively through LinkedIn).

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