Part 2: Economic predictions for 2023 – All you need to know about Recession

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Welcome back readers. Continuing about the economic predictions for 2023, let’s understand what recession is, its cause and effects on global economy. 

What is a Recession and How Does It Affect the Economy?

A recession is a period of economic decline characterized by a contraction in economic activity. It is typically measured by a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over two consecutive quarters. Recessions can have significant and far-reaching effects on the economy and can lead to high levels of unemployment, reduced consumer spending, and a decrease in business profits.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global economic recession in 2020, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating that the world economy contracted by 3.5% that year. The pandemic also led to widespread job losses and business closures, with many countries implementing lockdowns and social distancing measures to slow the spread of the virus.

What causes a recession?

Recessions are often caused by a variety of factors such as a decline in consumer confidence, a decrease in business investment, or a financial crisis. During a recession, businesses tend to cut back on spending, which can lead to job losses, reduced salaries, and a decrease in overall economic activity.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Measures: Since last year, Banks have aggressively raised interest rates to bring inflation under control. This would cool the consumer demand as borrowing becomes expensive, resulting in less spending and slower price growth. 

The global economy is projected to grow by 4% in 2021, following a contraction of 4.3% in 2020. Photo credit: Canva.com


Global GDP Growth: According to the World Bank, the global economy is projected to grow by 4% in 2021, following a contraction of 4.3% in 2020. However, the recovery is expected to be uneven across countries and sectors, with some countries and industries experiencing a slower recovery than others.

Unemployment Rates: Unemployment rates have increased in many countries as a result of the pandemic and recession. In the United States, for example, the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% in February 2020 to 14.8% in April 2020 before declining to 6.7% in December 2020. As of January 2022, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.2%.

Inflation: Inflation has been a concern for many countries as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. In the United States, inflation has risen to its highest level in over 30 years, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 7% in December 2021 compared to the previous year. The Federal Reserve has responded by raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy.

How Can We Prepare for a Recession?

While it is difficult to predict when a recession will occur, there are steps that individuals and businesses can take to prepare for an economic downturn. Here are some strategies to consider:

Build up savings: Having a cushion of savings can help individuals and businesses weather a recession. Aim to save at least 3-6 months’ worth of expenses or revenue.


Reduce debt: Reducing debt can help individuals and businesses manage their finances during a recession. Consider paying off high-interest debt and reducing expenses.

Diversify investments: Diversifying investments can help minimize the impact of a recession on your portfolio. Consider investing in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other asset classes.

Focus on cash flow: During a recession, cash flow is key. For businesses, focus on improving collections and managing inventory. For individuals, consider taking on extra work or selling unused assets to generate extra income.

Stay informed: Stay up to date on the latest economic news and trends. This can help you make informed decisions about your finances and investments.

In conclusion, recessions can be challenging and have far-reaching effects on the economy. However, with careful planning and preparation, individuals and businesses can minimize the impact of a recession on their finances and even use it as an opportunity for growth and innovation.

Effect of recession

The effects of a recession can be particularly severe for certain groups of people, such as those in lower-income brackets, as they may be more vulnerable to job loss and reduced access to credit. Recessions can also lead to a decrease in public services, as governments may need to cut back on spending to manage their budgets.

Global economic activities are affected heavily by geopolitical trends. The world economic forum suggests that amongst major factors resulting in slow down of business activity in 2023 are weak consumer demand and high cost of borrowing. This downturn would result in cutting business operational expenses and optimizing supply chains.

Photo credit: World Economic Forum

Correlation of Recession to Inflation:

The relationship between recession and inflation is complex and can vary depending on the specific economic conditions at play. In general, however, recessions and inflation are often seen as opposite sides of the same coin, with recessions tending to put downward pressure on inflation and expansions tending to put upward pressure on inflation.

During a recession, economic activity slows down, which can lead to lower demand for goods and services. As a result, businesses may lower their prices to stimulate demand and stay competitive, leading to lower inflation or even deflation. In addition, high levels of unemployment during a recession can reduce workers’ bargaining power, leading to lower wages and less pressure on employers to increase prices.

On the other hand, during an economic expansion, increased demand for goods and services can lead to higher prices and inflation. This can be exacerbated if there are supply constraints, such as a shortage of workers or raw materials, which can drive up prices further.

During an economic expansion, increased demand for goods and services can lead to higher prices and inflation. Photo credit: Canva.com


It’s important to note that the relationship between recession and inflation can be influenced by a range of factors, including government policies, international trade, and changes in commodity prices. In addition, there can be lags between changes in economic activity and changes in inflation, as businesses may take time to adjust their prices and workers may negotiate wage increases on an annual basis.

Overall, while there is no direct causal relationship between recession and inflation, the two are often intertwined in complex ways, and policymakers must consider both factors when making decisions about monetary and fiscal policy.

Can recession be avoided?

Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle, and it is difficult to completely avoid them. However, there are some steps that can be taken to reduce the likelihood and severity of recessions:

Fiscal Policy: Governments can use fiscal policy to stabilize the economy. During times of economic growth, governments can save money, pay down debt, and build up reserves, so they have more resources to use during a recession. During a recession, governments can use fiscal stimulus measures such as tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and transfer payments to help boost demand and support the economy.

Monetary Policy: Central banks can use monetary policy to stabilize the economy. During a recession, central banks can lower interest rates and increase the money supply to encourage spending and investment. During periods of high inflation, central banks can raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy to cool down the economy and reduce inflationary pressures.

Structural Reforms: Governments can implement structural reforms that make the economy more efficient and more resistant to shocks. For example, reforms that increase competition, reduce regulation, and promote innovation can help the economy adapt to changes in the global marketplace.

International Cooperation: International cooperation can help reduce the likelihood and severity of recessions. For example, countries can work together to reduce trade barriers, coordinate their fiscal and monetary policies, and share best practices for economic management.

It is important to note that while these steps can help reduce the likelihood and severity of recessions, they cannot eliminate them. Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle, and they can be caused by a variety of factors, including natural disasters, geopolitical events, and changes in consumer behavior. However, by implementing sound economic policies and promoting international cooperation, governments and central banks can help create a more stable and resilient global economy.

On a brighter note, recessions can also lead to opportunities for economic growth and innovation. For example, during the Great Recession of 2008, the rise of new technologies and increased competition led to the growth of the gig economy and other forms of flexible work. Similarly, many businesses have used recessions as an opportunity to restructure and streamline their operations, leading to increased efficiency and profitability.

Share your thoughts about recession in comments below.

What are the economic predictions for 2023?

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The last few years have been like a foggy, fading memory, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the US Capitol attack in 2021 to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Who would have thought about these events’ disastrous effects on our lives?

Advent of Covid-19 in 2019 impacts our lives even 3 years later. Photo credit: Canva.com

And with not much relief from the dire repercussions of the last three years, the impact of these events on our lives continues in 2023 as well.

What does this mean for the world economy?

I am not an economist. I work and run a family. But I understand simple economic terms and their co-relationships. I can do the math when I see increasing grocery bills, and my household income remains unchanged. I feel the pinch on my wallet, and I know I cannot afford to indulge in any ‘extra’ luxuries anymore as I have bills to pay and ends to meet.

In layperson’s terms, the 2023 economy can be described as a chain reaction of the following events:

Spiked inflation levels – Raised interest rates – Fall of GDP/economic growth – Fear of spreading recession

Interest rates are increasing due to high inflation. Photo credit: Canva.com

Let’s understand what inflation is.

Inflation is a measure of the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, and purchasing power falls. Various factors, including economic growth, interest rate changes, and supply and demand shifts, can cause inflation.

Common causes of inflation

  1. Economic growth: There is an increased circulation of money as a country’s economy grows and expands. This increased money supply can increase prices as businesses raise prices to take advantage of the extra demand. Additionally, wages tend to rise as the economy grows, which can contribute to higher prices.
  2. Changes in interest rates: When interest rates are low, it is cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can increase spending. This increased spending can cause prices to rise as companies raise prices to take advantage of the extra demand. On the other hand, borrowing becomes more expensive when interest rates are high, leading to decreased spending and lower prices. 
  3. Shifts in supply and demand: When demand for goods and services is high, businesses may raise prices to take advantage of the extra demand. Conversely, companies may lower their prices to attract customers when demand is low. Additionally, when the supply of goods and services is low, prices may rise due to the limited availability of goods and services. On the other hand, when the supply is high, prices may decrease as businesses try to attract customers.
  4. Natural disasters, wars, and government policies: Natural disasters can lead to higher prices for goods and services as businesses struggle to keep up with the extra demand. Government policies, such as printing money or increasing taxes, can also lead to inflation. Wars can cause inflation as governments increase spending to fund the war effort.

    Understanding the causes of inflation is essential to manage its effects on the economy better.
Shifts in demand and supply causes inflation. Photo credit: Canva.com

Types of Inflation

  1. Cost-push inflation: This occurs when production costs increase, leading to higher prices for goods and services. For example, if the cost of raw materials or labour increases, businesses may pass on those costs to consumers through higher prices. This can also happen due to increases in taxes, tariffs, and regulations.
  2. Monetary inflation: This occurs when there is an increase in the money supply, which can lead to higher prices as more money chases the same amount of goods and services. This can happen if a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, increases the money supply through monetary policy.
  3. Expectations of inflation: Inflation can also occur if people expect prices to rise. This can happen if they think that the economy is growing too quickly, interest rates will increase, or due to any other reason. If people expect prices to rise, they may start to spend more money now, which can lead to actual inflation.
  4. Imported inflation: This can happen when a country experiences inflation due to the increased prices of imported goods. For example, if the value of the country’s currency decreases, imported goods will become more expensive, leading to higher consumer prices.
  5. Foreign inflation: This refers to the inflation that occurs in a country due to inflation in other countries. For example, if a country’s main trading partners experience inflation, it may increase the prices of imported goods and services, which in turn can cause inflation in the country.

How inflation can be controlled

Changes in Monetary policy can help curb inflation. Photo credit: Canva.com
  1. Monetary policy: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States or the European Central Bank, can control inflation by manipulating interest rates. When interest rates are high, borrowing becomes more expensive, decreasing spending and lowering prices. On the other hand, borrowing becomes cheaper when interest rates are low, leading to increased spending and higher prices. Central banks can also use other monetary policy tools, such as open market operations, to control inflation.
  2. Fiscal policy: Governments can also control inflation by using fiscal policy, which includes government spending and taxation. For example, if the government increases taxes, it can decrease spending, which can help reduce inflation. On the other hand, if the government increases spending, it can increase demand for goods and services, which can cause prices to rise.
  3. Supply-side policies: Governments can also use supply-side policies to control inflation. For example, suppose the government reduces regulations and taxes. In that case, it can make it easier for businesses to produce goods and services, increasing the supply of goods and services and helping to keep prices low.
  4. Incomes policies: Governments can also control inflation by using income policies, which aim to control wage and price increases. For example, the government can impose wage and price controls, which can help to keep prices low. 
  5. International coordination: Inflation can also be controlled through international coordination. For example, if a country’s trading partners are experiencing high inflation, it can increase the prices of imported goods and services, which in turn can cause inflation in the country. In such cases, governments can coordinate with other countries to stabilize prices.

Inflation can have various economic effects, such as reducing purchasing power, making exports less competitive, and increasing the risk of recession. Central banks and government try to balance stable prices and economic growth. It’s essential to understand the causes of inflation to create policies that can mitigate its adverse effects and maintain economic stability.

Inflation can lead to recession. Photo credit: Canva.com


Controlling inflation is not always easy and can have negative consequences, such as reducing economic growth, increasing unemployment, and creating imbalances in the economy. Therefore, central banks and governments usually aim to balance stable prices and economic development and use different tools and policies to achieve that balance.

It seems like inflation is here to stay in 2023 for most of us from a global perspective, as the underlying problem of imbalances in the supply chain persists. And world leaders have thought of reducing overall economic activity as the answer to the inflation problem. And as the ripple effect stems from reduced spending, a recession is soon knocking on our doors. Watch this space as I discuss the recession in next week’s blog.