September 2013 MALIC Residency in York

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Almost two weeks have passed, but memories are still fresh!

September 9th, 2013 – a day like any other really, except I got to meet for the first time “in the flesh” 49 extraordinary people, all on the same day, and all in a single room! Granted, the room was not too big, but the energy and excitement as we got to know each other, shaking hands or finally pulling those virtual hugs into the real universe, was unbelievable.

These forty-nine “students”, seasoned managers, board-room veterans, serial or aspiring entrepreneurs, from all walks of life, were representing all five continents (sorry Antarctica, we’re still waiting for your representative!), and a staggering thirty (30!) countries. It is difficult to describe in words, and even more difficult to imagine, the richness of the interaction and the dynamics of such a special group. A biased population, for sure, driven by the desire to grow better.

MALIC Sep 2013 York from Dr.David Costa on Vimeo.

As the week progressed and we delved deeper into matters pertaining to research ethics, and quality of research, we also took great care to nourish and develop social relations, in places traditionally suitable for debate, such as pubs, restaurants and cafés, and to be honest, for me this is almost without exception the most interesting part of such a residency – discovering the people. As big a supporter of online education as I am (being actively involved in it!), the added value of face-to-face interaction, for even the briefest of times, to me is invaluable. And Tim agrees!

Students for students: Tim's advice for the residency from Dr.David Costa on Vimeo.

For more advice from current and past students, visit:

https://blog.college.ch/tag/students4students/

It would not be fair to leave out the exceptional team from our partner York St John University, who have done an amazing job of catering to all our needs, academic or logistic, and have done so with style. George and Irene, Sarah, Leanne and Natalie, thank you!

The Dean on CNBC: German Elections: the impact for Europe and European Investors

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German Elections: the impact for Europe and European Investors
================================================================
 
The upcoming German elections should not present any drastic change for other European
countries or European investors.
 
We do not know what the Government coalition will be and if some minor parties, like the anti-euro party will
meet the 5% necessary to hold a seat in the parliament, but some points are already well defined:
 
– In Germany there is a strong consensus against any form of debt mutualisation so we are unlikely to see
any form of Eurobond. That might only happen when and if Europe will have a centralised supervision that will
ensure no overspending. Germany is unlikely to accept and support a fiscal union.
 
– The banking union process will progress at a slow pace and Germany sees the union more as a long term
institutional structural change and not as a tool to fight the crisis in the short term. 
 
– Both the German public and the majority of politicians believe on the principle of fiscal austerity and low inflation
which doesn’t stimulate consumers spending.  This is unlikely to change despite the wishes of both the U.S. and other
European countries to stimulate growth. 
 
 
German Elections for European Markets
=====================================
 
Investment flows in Europe are back at pre-crisis level. What markets really want now is continuity.For this 
reason the re-election of Angela Merkel will be positive for the markets.
In a post-election scenario the new German governments could have more flexibility if needed as there will be
less anxiety about the immediate public reaction.
 
What I do think it that it is highly unlikely to see a new crisis as the one experience in 2010-2012 which was,
primarily, a crisis of confidence. 
 
Wide Divide
===========
 
As highlighted in a recent EY study the divide between northern and southern European economies is widening. For instance
in 2014 unemployment is likely to remain lower than 5.4% in Germany but to peak to 27% and 29% in Spain and Greece.
While as a whole Europe will maintain a steady path to recovery this divide creates opportunities for investors that 
select these European countries, industries and sectors that are more likely to recover in the short term. 
In Short
========
 
– German elections is likely to result in policy continuity with the same position on Eurobonds, Banking Union and a recovery
based on fiscal austerity and low inflation;
– European markets are likely to benefit from this continuity and another crisis is unlikely;
– Wide divide to remain with substantial gaps in unemployment and growth between northern and southern european economies.